🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending November 21, 2025

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold retreated from three-week highs above US$4,130 to trade near US$4,060 as stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampened December rate-cut expectations. The resolution of the historic government shutdown removed some safe-haven premium, while central banks continued their structural buying trend.

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📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold opened the week near US$4,078 on Monday, extending prior week's recovery
• Mid-week surge pushed XAU/USD to US$4,131 on Tuesday, a three-week high
• Failed breakout above US$4,100 resistance triggered technical selling Thursday
• Strong US jobs data sent prices to weekly lows near US$4,030
• Gold stabilized Friday around US$4,060–US$4,065, down roughly 1% for the week
• Year-to-date gains remain impressive at approximately 55%

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

December rate-cut probability fell from 90% a month ago to roughly 45% following hawkish Fed commentary and resilient labor data. The DXY strengthened to 100.33, pressuring gold despite dovish signals from Fed's Williams suggesting room for near-term cuts.

💰 b. Fiscal & Political Factors

The extended government shutdown concluded this week, removing a key safe-haven catalyst. Consumer sentiment hit a three-year low at 50.3, while tariff uncertainty continues to provide support for defensive positioning.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

Gold rejected the US$4,100–US$4,125 resistance zone, pulling back to test support at US$4,025–US$4,050. RSI sits neutral around 43, with MACD showing no clear directional bias. Key support holds at US$4,000 (38.2% Fibonacci), with resistance at US$4,157 and the all-time high near US$4,380.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

Central bank purchases accelerated in September with an estimated 64 tonnes, up from 21 tonnes in August. Year-to-date buying totals over 630 tonnes, led by Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey, and Poland. Global gold ETF AUM reached a record US$503bn in October, though November saw the first outflows in six months.

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🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: Post-Diwali demand softened with dealers offering discounts up to US$14/oz; trade deficit hit record US$41.7bn driven by gold imports
• China: New VAT rules effective November 1 cooled physical demand; domestic prices at parity to slight discount vs. international spot
• North America: ETF inflows continued despite global outflows; institutional positioning remains constructive
• Global: Q3 2025 total gold demand hit record 1,313 tonnes worth US$146bn

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🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Near-term consolidation expected between US$4,000–US$4,150 as markets digest Fed policy signals ahead of the December 10 meeting. Goldman Sachs maintains its US$4,900 target for end-2026. A decisive break above US$4,200 could open the path toward US$4,350–US$4,450.

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💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

Gold's structural bull case remains intact despite short-term volatility, supported by central bank diversification and real rate dynamics. Current pullbacks toward US$4,000 offer accumulation opportunities for long-term portfolio hedging.

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⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Fed Hawkishness: December "skip" now 55% probability—a hold could pressure gold toward US$3,900
• Dollar Strength: DXY above 100 creates headwinds; further gains could test US$4,000 support
• ETF Outflows: First monthly outflow in six months signals potential near-term profit-taking
• China Demand: Regulatory headwinds and VAT changes may suppress world's largest consumer market

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold remains in a consolidation phase after its remarkable 55% YTD rally, with US$4,000 serving as crucial technical and psychological support. The December Fed meeting and incoming inflation data will be key catalysts for the next directional move.

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