🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending November 14, 2025

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold staged a powerful rally this week, climbing ~5-6% over five consecutive sessions to reach just above $4,200/oz before settling near $4,180/oz. The surge was fuelled by dollar weakness (with the DXY Index dipping below 100), resolution of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, and renewed rate-cut optimism with traders pricing December rate-cut odds in the mid-50 % range. Bulls appear to have reclaimed control after last month’s correction, with technical resistance in the ~$4,250–$4,300 zone.

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📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session, rising to intraday highs above $4,200/oz on Nov 13 before settling in the ~$4,180–$4,190 region.
• The week saw strong gains, recovering from early November lows near $3,980/oz to above $4,150.
• Nov 11: Gold traded near ~$4,108/oz (approximate) as the rally gathered steam.
• Nov 12: Advanced toward ~$4,135/oz amid accelerating dollar weakness.
• Nov 13: Surged past $4,200/oz, consolidating above $4,200.
• Nov 14: End-of-day prints showed gold around ~$4,115/oz (varies by data feed).
• Price remains ~60-66% higher year-over-year, depending on the data feed.

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

The DXY Index dropped below 100, contributing to gold’s upward move. Traders are pricing in mid-50% odds of a 25 bp cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Several Fed policymakers remain cautious, leaving near-term volatility elevated.

💰 b. Fiscal & Political Factors

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days, with Donald Trump signing the funding legislation on Nov 12, 2025 — the longest-ever shutdown in U.S. history. The resolution removed a major source of data uncertainty, clearing the path for renewed market attention to economic releases and monetary-policy outlook.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

Bulls are eyeing key resistance around $4,250–$4,300/oz. The $4,100 zone is now seen as critical near-term support. If price closes decisively above ~$4,250, broader trend resumption toward past highs becomes more likely; a failure here could prompt retreat toward ~$4,000 support.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

Official-sector demand remains elevated: in Q3 2025 central banks added ~220 tonnes, bringing year-to-date purchases to ~634 tonnes. This signals strategic accumulation despite high price levels.

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🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: Retail demand remains robust despite elevated gold prices; trade-deficit pressures persist.
• China: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues to show signs of official gold purchasing, though public monthly figures remain modest and no widely-verified single-month “19 tonne” purchase has been confirmed.
• North America: Physically-backed gold ETFs logged strong inflows (~US $6.5 billion) in October, driven by institutional appetite amid dollar softness.
• Europe: Region recorded notable outflows (~US $4.5 billion) in October, driven by UK and Germany-based funds — a counterforce to North American demand.

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🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Short-term technicals favour further gains toward $4,250–$4,300/oz, provided bulls clear the $4,187–$4,193 zone decisively. Major investment banks forecast gold holdings around $4,000–$4,100/oz in early 2026 under base-case scenarios; upside scenarios (e.g., geostrategic risk spikes) could see targets near $4,700/oz. Medium-term direction depends heavily on Fed-policy clarity and dollar movements. Key support sits near $4,000–$4,100/oz, barring a hawkish shock.

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💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

Gold’s recent surge (5-6% weekly and ~ 60-66% YoY) reinforces its dual role as inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier in a weak-dollar, policy-uncertain environment. Consolidation above $4,100 suggests attractive strategic entry opportunities for long-term holders; near-term traders should monitor the $4,187–$4,193 breakout and consider scaling in on pullbacks to the support zone (~$4,000–$4,100).

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⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Hawkish Fed pivot: Any signal of a delayed cut or renewed tightening could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold.
• Technical rejection: Failure to clear $4,250–$4,300 resistance may trigger profit-taking and retreat toward $4,000 support.
• European ETF outflows: Continued net outflows from Europe could offset inflows elsewhere.
• Equity market risk-on: A strong global-equity rally or easing geopolitical tensions could reduce gold’s safe-haven appeal.

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold’s recent stretch of consecutive gains demonstrates renewed momentum, underpinned by dollar weakness, elevated central-bank demand and rate-cut hopes — despite near-term policy and technical risks. With key support holding near ~$4,000–$4,100 and structural drivers intact, the bull case remains well-anchored. Keep an eye on Fed commentary, the dollar’s 100-level "line in the sand", and the ~$4,250 breakout as near-term catalysts.

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