🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending November 29, 2025

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold surged 2.7% this week to close at US$4,230.63, decisively breaking above the US$4,200 mark on weakening dollar sentiment and renewed December Fed rate-cut speculation. Strong technical momentum and robust central bank demand position bulls for potential moves toward US$4,400+ levels.

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📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold rallied from US$4,157.99 to close at US$4,230.63, a US$72.64 gain representing the first close above US$4,200 in two weeks
• Weekly gain of 2.7% driven by U.S. dollar weakness with DXY falling below 100
• Intra-week consolidation between US$4,157–US$4,202 before Friday's breakout
• Bulls establishing support near the 55-day moving average around US$4,100–US$4,120
• Next technical resistance targets: US$4,313, US$4,374, and the Fibonacci 1.618% extension at US$4,553

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

December's Fed decision looms large with market pricing showing renewed dovish bets despite Chair Powell's recent caution that rate cuts are "not a foregone conclusion." Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have reignited expectations, supporting gold's advance. Dollar weakness—DXY falling below 100—directly supports the bullish case as yields remain range-bound.

💰 b. Fiscal & Political Factors

U.S. government data delays from shutdown-related disruptions have created economic uncertainty, historically favorable for safe-haven positioning. Political volatility and geopolitical tensions continue supporting gold's defensive appeal, particularly as fiscal deficit concerns persist into year-end.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

The break above US$4,200 establishes a new intermediate support zone and opens the door to test the next resistance cluster at US$4,420–US$4,520. A close above the October 17 reversal level would confirm resumption of the broader uptrend. Technical indicators show strong momentum with elevated readings suggesting overbought conditions but continued trending strength.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

Central banks accelerated gold purchases in August, with Poland leading H1 2025 buying and China reporting its tenth consecutive monthly increase. The IMF reports 95% of central bankers expect gold reserves to continue rising over the next 12 months—a structural tailwind supporting prices across cycles.

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🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: Seasonal wedding demand (November–March) remains robust with local gold prices elevated; December traditionally sees strong physical buying
• China: People's Bank of China's tenth consecutive monthly reserve increase signals strategic accumulation amid broader de-dollarization trends
• Emerging Markets: 23 countries added to gold reserves in H1 2025, reflecting broad-based central bank momentum
• North America: U.S.-based ETF inflows remain modestly positive, though CME positioning shows mixed sentiment among traders

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🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Gold is positioned to test resistance at US$4,313–US$4,373 over the next 2–3 weeks, with the bull target remaining the US$4,420–US$4,553 zone. Near-term support anchors around the 55-day moving average (US$4,100–US$4,120). December's Fed decision will be the primary catalyst; a rate cut would likely accelerate moves toward US$4,400+, while a hawkish hold could trigger pullbacks toward US$4,050–US$4,100.

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💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

Gold's resilience above US$4,200 confirms its role as an effective portfolio hedge amid macro uncertainty. The structural support from central bank accumulation suggests dips remain attractive for long-term buyers. Current valuations are reasonable relative to 2025's trading range, making tactical positioning favorable for risk-adjusted returns.

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⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Fed Hawkishness: A December hold or hawkish guidance would quickly reverse the bullish setup, targeting support at US$4,050–US$4,100
• Data Surprises: Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment or inflation prints could trigger dollar rallies and gold liquidation
• Technical Overbought: Elevated momentum indicators leave room for mean reversion; a 1–2% pullback would not invalidate the bullish trend
• Geopolitical De-escalation: Positive developments on conflict resolution could reduce safe-haven demand

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold's breakout above US$4,200 signals mounting conviction that the Fed easing cycle remains intact despite recent hawkish rhetoric. The convergence of rate-cut expectations, dollar weakness, and structural central bank demand creates a favorable environment through year-end. Near-term support has established around US$4,100–US$4,120, making pullbacks potential buying opportunities.

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