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🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending December 13, 2025

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold surged to US$4,299/oz this week, approaching October's record high of US$4,381, after the Fed delivered its third rate cut of 2025. With prices up over 60% year-to-date and silver hitting all-time highs above US$61/oz, precious metals momentum remains firmly bullish heading into year-end.

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📈 Recent Price Action

• Spot gold rose 0.7% post-Fed to US$4,237/oz, then extended gains to test US$4,299 by Friday
• Comex December futures surged US$89 (+2.1%) to US$4,285 following the rate decision
• Gold broke above the US$4,245-US$4,250 consolidation range on increased volume
• Weekly gain of approximately 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive session of gains
• Prices now sit just 2% below the October 17 all-time high of US$4,381
• Silver rallied to a record US$61.87/oz, more than doubling year-to-date

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💡 Key Drivers

🏦 Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

The Fed cut rates 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, its third reduction of 2025. Chair Powell signaled further hikes are "off the table," while the 9-3 vote revealed internal division on pace. The Dollar Index (DXY) is down 12.5% year-to-date—its worst year in two decades—providing structural support for dollar-denominated gold.

💰 Fiscal & Political Factors

U.S. labor market cooling reinforced rate-cut expectations as jobless claims hit a two-month high. Ongoing uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine peace process and U.S. interception of a sanctioned tanker near Venezuela added safe-haven demand.

📊 Technical Momentum

Gold confirmed a bullish breakout above the US$4,245-US$4,250 resistance zone. A Bullish Marubozu pattern formed on daily charts with MACD turning positive. Key support at US$4,150-US$4,164; next resistance at US$4,300 and then the US$4,381 record. Oscillators remain in positive territory without overbought readings.

🌍 Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

Central banks purchased 53 tonnes in October (+36% month-over-month)—the highest monthly demand of 2025. Poland added 16 tonnes, Brazil 16 tonnes, and Uzbekistan 9 tonnes. Year-to-date official sector purchases total 254 tonnes, with 95% of central banks expecting reserves to continue rising.

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🌏 Regional Highlights

• India: Domestic prices hit record ₹132,776/10g; dealer discounts widened to US$34/oz as jeweler footfall dropped sharply despite wedding season
• China: Premiums fluctuated between -US$20 to +US$10/oz; VAT changes increased jeweler costs and suppressed retail demand
• North America: Gold ETFs saw US$32.7bn year-to-date inflows; SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recorded record buying
• Global ETFs: Six consecutive months of inflows pushed AUM to US$445bn, approaching US$500bn milestone

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🔭 Outlook

Analysts target US$4,400-US$4,500/oz near-term, with US$5,000/oz increasingly discussed for 2026. The Fed's single-cut forecast for next year and ongoing dollar weakness should maintain tailwinds. Key support at US$4,150 must hold to preserve bullish momentum.

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💼 Investment Implications

Gold continues to serve as an effective portfolio diversifier with a 60%+ year-to-date return outpacing equities. Lower real yields and persistent geopolitical risks reinforce its hedge appeal. Consider maintaining or adding exposure while monitoring the US$4,150 support level.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Fed pause signals could stall momentum if January data surprises hawkish
• Physical demand in India and China remains soft at record prices; jewelry consumption has declined for six consecutive quarters
• A sharp dollar rebound or risk-on rotation could trigger profit-taking from US$4,300+ levels
• ETF flows, while strong, have moderated from September's record US$17bn monthly inflow

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold enters year-end trading near all-time highs with structural bullish factors intact. Watch for the December CPI print and any Fed commentary shifts as the market digests the 2026 rate path. The US$4,381 record remains in sight.

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