🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending January 3, 2026

---

✨ Executive Summary

Gold consolidated around US$4,330/oz after pulling back from its December 26 record high near US$4,550, down 2% for the holiday week. The retreat reflects profit-taking following a historic rally in 2025, while persistent safe-haven demand from ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Middle East tensions continues to underpin prices heading into 2026.

---

📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold traded at US$4,332/oz, retreating 2% from last week's US$4,422 close
• Hit weekly high near US$4,550 on December 28 before profit-taking set in
• Monday's 4%+ single-day drop marked the largest intraday decline since October
• Silver ranged US$70–US$84; platinum US$1,915–US$2,475

---

💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

Fed rate cut odds for January remain low, with markets expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The dollar remains soft, supporting gold as a cheaper global asset.

💰 b. Fiscal & Political Factors

Elevated US government spending and Fed leadership transition in May add uncertainty. Potential tariff re-escalations under the incoming administration keep fiscal concerns elevated.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

Gold found support near US$4,285 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) after breaching US$4,500. Key support at US$4,250–US$4,300; resistance at US$4,400–US$4,500. Path to US$5,000 remains intact above US$4,000.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

Central bank purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes for the third consecutive year in 2025. Projected 2026 purchases remain elevated versus pre-2022 averages of 400–500 tonnes.

---

🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India & China: Continue structural gold accumulation; China's pilot program allowing insurers to allocate to gold could expand institutional demand
• Poland: Led H1 2025 central bank buying; Eastern European diversification accelerating
• North America: Gold ETF inflows extended through late 2025; seasonal weakness typical in December

---

🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Analysts project gold reaching US$4,500–US$5,000 by year-end 2026. Near-term consolidation in the US$4,200–US$4,500 range expected before the next leg higher.

---

💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

The pullback from record highs offers an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors, with structural central bank and emerging market demand providing a floor.

---

⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Rate Persistence: If the Fed holds longer than expected, real yields could pressure gold toward US$4,000–US$4,200
• Dollar Strength: A DXY rebound could temporarily cap upside momentum
• Geopolitical De-escalation: A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or Middle East détente may reduce safe-haven premium
• ETF Outflows: Seasonal December/January weakness historically triggers redemptions even in bull markets

---

💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold enters 2026 in a healthy consolidation after a strong 2025 rally. Key catalysts ahead include the January Fed meeting, Q4 earnings season, and ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

---

© 2026 GoldTrack.io — For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.