🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending January 10, 2026

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold surged above $4,500/oz this week, posting a 4% gain as weak U.S. jobs data bolstered Fed rate-cut expectations and China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months. Safe-haven flows remain strong amid ongoing geopolitical tensions despite a modest dollar rebound mid-week.

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📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold climbed to $4,523/oz on Friday, marking a weekly gain of ~$180 (+4.1%), with the week's range spanning $4,462–$4,527
• Bullion touched a near-term high of $4,549 in late December before pulling back on profit-taking and dollar strength
• Silver surged to $78.74/oz, up $4.31 in 24 hours, with the metal more than doubling year-over-year
• Platinum traded at $2,288/oz, up 77% from January 2025 levels

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

December payrolls disappointed at just 50,000 jobs added, reinforcing market bets on two more Fed cuts in 2026—with June now priced for the next 25bp reduction.

💰 b. Fiscal & Political Factors

Escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions and unresolved Russia–Ukraine negotiations continue to drive safe-haven demand, while HSBC warns rising global debt could push gold to $5,000.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

Gold broke above the $4,500 resistance zone and maintains a pattern of higher highs; support now sits at $4,350–$4,400, with RSI approaching overbought territory near 66.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

China's PBOC added gold for the 14th consecutive month, lifting reserves to 2,306 tonnes—underscoring the structural shift toward gold diversification.

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🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: 24K gold hit ₹1.40 lakh per 10g (~$4,520/oz equivalent); December saw India's largest-ever monthly gold ETF inflows
• China: PBOC reserves now valued at US$319.5bn, with consistent monthly accumulation continuing into 2026
• North America/Europe: Record 2025 ETF inflows continued into December; European funds added US$1bn led by UK and Switzerland

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🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Analysts see gold consolidating at $4,400–$4,600 near-term, with HSBC targeting $5,000 in H1 2026 and Goldman Sachs eyeing $4,900 by year-end. Key support at $4,350–$4,400 should contain pullbacks.

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💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

With central bank buying and ETF inflows structurally intact, investors may consider maintaining gold allocations while watching for pullbacks toward $4,400 support for tactical entry.

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⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Dollar resurgence: DXY rebounded to ~99 in early 2026; further strength could pressure gold toward $4,400
• Fed hawkishness: A strong January jobs report could delay rate cuts and trigger profit-taking
• Overbought technicals: RSI near 66 suggests consolidation risk; a break below $4,350 opens $4,000 support
• Jewelry demand destruction: Record prices have dented physical jewelry demand, particularly in price-sensitive markets

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold's structural bull case remains intact as central banks accumulate and real yields stay subdued. Next week's CPI print and Fed commentary will be pivotal for near-term direction.

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