🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending January 17, 2026

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✨ Executive Summary

Gold surged to all-time highs above $4,640/oz this week, gaining approximately 3.6% as cooling inflation data cemented expectations for Fed rate cuts while geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Silver stole the spotlight with a record-breaking push above $90/oz, driven by China's export restrictions and relentless industrial demand.

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📈 1️⃣ Recent Price Action

• Gold hit an intraday record of $4,641/oz on Tuesday before consolidating near $4,597/oz (+3.6% week-over-week)
• Silver cracked $90/oz for the first time, with a weekly range of $80–$93/oz
• Platinum rallied to $2,447/oz mid-week, settling around $2,338/oz
• This marks gold's second consecutive weekly gain and extends its 12-month rally to approximately 70%

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Rate-Cut Expectations & Dollar Weakness

Softer CPI and PPI data reinforced expectations for two Fed rate cuts in 2026. The dollar is off to its worst start since 2017, with the DXY consolidating between 97–100, providing tailwinds for bullion.

🏛️ b. Fiscal & Political Factors

Concerns over Fed independence have intensified amid political pressure, while elevated fiscal deficits and sanctions risks continue to drive reserve diversification away from dollar assets.

📊 c. Technical Momentum

Gold found support at $4,500–$4,560 with resistance at $4,635–$4,700. RSI approaching overbought territory suggests near-term consolidation, though the bullish structure remains intact with targets toward $4,800–$5,000.

🌍 d. Central Bank & Emerging Market Demand

The PBoC extended its buying streak to 14 consecutive months, adding over 40 tonnes since November 2024. Global central bank purchases are projected to reach 750–1,100 tonnes in 2026.

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🌏 3️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: Wedding season demand remains resilient despite gold prices reaching ₹1,42,530/10g. December imports moderated to 35–40 tonnes as consumers shift toward lightweight jewelry.
• China: Physical demand strengthening ahead of Lunar New Year with retailers restocking. PBoC holdings now at 2,306 tonnes (approximately 8.5% of reserves).
• North America/Europe: ETF inflows picking up as institutional investors increase allocations, with gold-backed ETF holdings at multi-year highs.

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🔭 4️⃣ Outlook

Analysts project gold reaching $4,900–$5,000/oz by Q4 2026 (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank), with $4,500–$4,560 serving as key near-term support and $5,000 as the major psychological target.

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💼 5️⃣ Investment Implications

Elevated prices and overbought conditions suggest patience for new entries around $4,500–$4,550, with partial profit-taking prudent in the $4,600–$4,700 zone.

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⚠️ 6️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Fed holds firm at January 28–29 meeting; hawkish surprises could trigger profit-taking
• Stronger-than-expected economic data may push rate cut expectations further into H2 2026
• Dollar rebound risk if supply-side inflation shock materializes
• Overbought technicals (RSI near 70) suggest pullbacks to $4,500 are possible before resuming uptrend

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold remains in a structural bull market underpinned by central bank accumulation, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy tailwinds. Watch the January FOMC meeting and upcoming GDP data for the next directional catalyst.

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