🏆 GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending January 24, 2026

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✨ Executive Summary

Precious metals surged this week as gold approached the psychological $5,000 barrier, gaining 8.1% to close at $4,986. Silver stole the show with a 13.8% weekly
gain, pushing past $100/oz for the first time. Central bank buying, dollar weakness (DXY near 98), and mounting Fed independence concerns ahead of the January
27-28 FOMC meeting drove safe-haven flows across the complex. The gold/silver ratio compressed to 48.3, signaling silver's relative strength.

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📚 Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 1️⃣ Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,986	+8.1%	$4,597	$4,988	+14.2%
Silver	$103.29	+13.8%	$90.15	$103.30	+38.0%
Platinum	$2,778	+20.7%	$2,313	$2,779	+24.8%
Palladium	$2,023	+15.3%	$1,783	$2,028	+20.4%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 48.3 (↓ from 50.8 last week) — Silver outperforming as industrial demand and momentum traders favor the white metal

Key Milestones

• Gold reached an intraday high of $4,988, its closest approach to the $5,000 psychological barrier
• Silver broke above $100/oz for the first time in history, now trading at all-time highs
• Platinum surged 20.7% on the week, its strongest weekly gain in over a year

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💡 2️⃣ Key Drivers

🏦 a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The DXY fell to 98, approaching three-month lows as markets price in a 95% probability of a Fed pause at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting. Legal and political
challenges to Fed independence have added a "Fed premium" to gold.

💰 b. Macro & Political Factors

Geopolitical tensions involving Russia-Ukraine and broader global uncertainty continue fueling safe-haven demand. Inflation data remains sticky, supporting gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.

🌍 c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Central banks purchased 45 tonnes in November, with Poland (12t) and Brazil (11t) leading. Year-to-date official sector buying reached 297 tonnes. Global gold
ETFs hit record AUM of $530 billion with 6 consecutive months of inflows.

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🔭 3️⃣ Technical Outlook

Gold maintains its bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. Immediate resistance sits at the psychological $5,000 level, with a breakout targeting
$5,050-$5,100. Key support zones are $4,790 (previous consolidation) and $4,500-$4,550 (critical trend support). RSI remains in overbought territory but has
stayed elevated throughout the rally without triggering a reversal.

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🌏 4️⃣ Regional Highlights

• India: Gold ETF inflows hit an all-time high of INR 116bn ($1.29bn) in December, the eighth consecutive month of additions, though jewellery buying is muted due to record prices
• China: Premiums widened to $21/oz above spot, reflecting tight supply and renewed retail interest. The PBoC added 27 tonnes in 2025, pushing reserves to
  2,306 tonnes (8.5% of total reserves)
• North America/Europe: ETF inflows reached $12bn in Europe for 2025 (second-highest on record), driven by UK and Switzerland amid geopolitical uncertainty

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⚠️ 5️⃣ Risks & Watchpoints

• Fed hawkish surprise: Any indication of resumed rate hikes would pressure gold; watch for hawkish FOMC language on January 28
• Dollar reversal: DXY holding above 97 support; a bounce toward 100+ would create headwinds
• Profit-taking correction: With RSI overbought and gold up 14% YTD, a pullback to $4,500-$4,600 support is possible
• China demand wobble: Elevated premiums and record prices could slow retail buying if prices don't consolidate

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💼 6️⃣ Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors:
Consider scaling in on pullbacks rather than chasing; a 3-5% position with entry targets near $4,600-$4,700 offers better risk/reward than buying at current
levels.

For Current Holders:
Hold core positions but consider taking 10-15% profits if gold breaches $5,000; use any pullback to $4,700 support as an opportunity to rebuild.

Gold vs. Silver:
Silver's 38% YTD gain and compressed ratio suggest momentum favors the white metal; however, silver's higher volatility means position sizing should be smaller.

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💬 Closing Thoughts

Gold sits within striking distance of $5,000—a level that would cement 2026 as another landmark year for precious metals. The January 27-28 FOMC decision and
Chair Powell's press conference will set the tone for the next leg. Key data to watch: January 28 FOMC statement (2:00pm ET), January 31 PCE inflation.

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