GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending January 31, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals experienced their most volatile week in over a decade, capped by a historic flash crash on January 30th. Gold plunged from a record $5,608 to below $4,900 (down 12.5% intraday) following news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, while silver suffered an even more dramatic 33% collapse from $122 to $76. Despite the carnage, gold remains up 12% YTD and the structural bull case remains intact as central bank buying continues and the dollar weakens.

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Key Terms This Week

Flash Crash: Sudden, severe price drop caused by algorithmic selling and thin liquidity | Fed Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh nominated to replace Powell; hawkish stance spooked markets | Forced Liquidation: When leveraged positions are automatically closed, accelerating selloffs | Parabolic Rally: Rapid, unsustainable price surge preceding corrections

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📉 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Change	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,894	-1.1%	$4,716	$5,608	+12.1%
Silver	$85.24	-13.9%	$76.01	$121.61	+13.9%
Platinum	$2,160	-20.2%	$2,026	$2,914	-3.0%
Palladium	$1,711	-13.4%	$1,630	$2,162	+1.8%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 57.4 (up from 50.0 last week) — Gold heavily favored as silver suffered steeper losses; ratio expanded 15% in a single week.

Key Milestones

• Gold touched all-time high of $5,608 on Thursday before crashing 12.5% intraday on Friday
• Silver's 33% peak-to-trough drop marked the worst precious metals crash since March 2020
• Weekly trading range for gold ($4,716–$5,608) was the widest in modern history

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Key Drivers

Monetary Policy & Dollar

Kevin Warsh's surprise nomination as Fed Chair triggered the selloff; his hawkish reputation suggests "higher-for-longer" rates ahead. The DXY rebounded to 97.15 (+0.9% on Friday) after the January FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75%.

Macro & Political Factors

Month-end positioning exacerbated volatility as profits from January's parabolic rally were locked in. Government shutdown concerns eased after a provisional deal, reducing safe-haven demand temporarily.

Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Global gold ETFs saw their seventh consecutive month of inflows in December (+$10bn, led by North America at +$6bn). Central banks remain structural buyers—755 tonnes projected for 2026—with China extending its buying streak to 12 consecutive months.

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Technical Outlook

The crash tested and held the critical $4,700–$4,720 support zone, which coincides with the December breakout level. Immediate resistance sits at $5,000 (psychological) and $5,300 (pre-crash support-turned-resistance). RSI has reset from extreme overbought to neutral territory, clearing the path for a potential recovery toward $5,200–$5,400. Below $4,700, next major support lies at $4,350–$4,400.

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Regional Highlights

• China: PBOC extended gold buying streak to 12 months; gold now 8% of FX reserves (up from 5.5% YoY)
• India: Second-largest central bank buyer in 2024 (+73 tonnes); ETF AUM has grown 15.5x since 2020
• North America: Gold ETFs attracted $6bn in December alone; US holdings hit record 2,019 tonnes

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Warsh transition period: Markets have until May 2026 to price in policy shifts; volatility will persist
• Leveraged position unwind: Forced liquidations may not be complete; further cascading selling possible
• Dollar rebound: If DXY sustains above 97, gold could test $4,700 support again
• Profit-taking exhaustion: After January's 12%+ YTD gains, further consolidation likely before next leg higher

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: This crash offers a more attractive entry than last week's parabolic highs; consider scaling in near $4,800–$4,900 with stops below $4,650.

For Current Holders: Hold through volatility—the structural bull case (central bank buying, de-dollarization, ETF flows) remains intact. Add on dips below $4,750 if risk tolerance allows.

Gold vs. Silver: Gold is the safer play near-term given silver's extreme 33% crash and expanded ratio (57.4). Wait for ratio to compress toward 50 before rotating into silver.

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Closing Thoughts

The flash crash marks the end of January's parabolic phase, not the end of the bull market. Central bank buying and structural dollar weakness provide a floor. Watch the March 18–19 FOMC for clues on Warsh's policy direction and the April inflation data for the next major catalyst.

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