GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending February 7, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals suffered their worst week in years after President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair acted as a catalyst amid stretched positioning, high leverage, and thin liquidity. Gold fell 6.5% on the week to $4,964/oz after briefly touching $5,090, while silver collapsed 31.0% as the gold/silver ratio surged from 48.3 to 63.8. Despite the dislocation, J.P. Morgan raised its year-end gold target to $6,300/oz, and post-selloff dip-buying drove global gold ETF inflows to $9.4 billion for the month — their strongest since March 2022.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters | DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength | RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) | Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Change	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,964	-6.5%	$4,421	$5,090	+13.7%
Silver	$77.87	-31.0%	$65.01	$91.93	+4.1%
Platinum	$2,100	-21.4%	$1,847	$2,333	-5.7%
Palladium	$1,697	-15.7%	$1,569	$1,838	+1.0%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 63.8 (up from 48.3 last week) — Gold strongly favored as silver bore the brunt of the selloff; ratio at its highest level since early 2025.

Key Milestones

• Gold posted its largest single-day decline since 1983, plunging to an intraday low of $4,421 on February 2 before staging a multi-day recovery to close the week at $4,964.
• Silver's 31% weekly drop was the steepest among all precious metals, erasing months of gains in days.
• Gold briefly breached $5,090 on February 4 before sellers stepped in, establishing a new near-term resistance level.

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Key Drivers

Monetary Policy & Dollar

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair triggered a hawkish repricing across markets, with the DXY rebounding from multi-month lows near 96–97. The policy shift expectations overshadowed the dollar's broader 9.6% decline over the past 12 months.

Macro & Political Factors

The Warsh nomination acted as a catalyst amid stretched positioning, high leverage, and thin liquidity — unwinding safe-haven trades built up over months. Pre-weekend position-trimming amplified the Friday rout, with leveraged traders rushing for exits across all four metals.

Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Global gold ETFs posted $9.4 billion in inflows for the month — the strongest since March 2022 — concentrated in post-selloff dip-buying as institutional investors used the correction to add exposure. Central bank purchases are projected at 755 tonnes for 2026, down from 863 tonnes in 2025 but still well above the pre-2022 average of 400–500 tonnes.

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Technical Outlook

Gold broke below a bearish rising wedge on the daily chart, with immediate support at $4,660–$4,700 (aligned with this week's intraday lows on February 5–6) and deeper support at $4,421 (the weekly low from February 2). Resistance sits at $5,090 (February 4 high) and the psychological $5,000 level. RSI has pulled back from overbought territory, suggesting the correction may have further to run before finding a floor — watch for stabilization above $4,700 as a sign of renewed buying interest.

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Regional Highlights

• India: Gold premiums more than halved from a decade-high $153/oz to $70/oz as volatile prices deterred physical buyers; the 2026/27 Union Budget left duty structures unchanged.
• China: Premiums rose to $35/oz (from $32) ahead of the Lunar New Year, with bar and coin sales overtaking jewelry purchases for the first time in 2025.
• North America: Dip-buying dominated, with North American gold ETF flows flipping positive in one of their strongest months on record despite the price rout.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• A Warsh-led Fed could pursue significantly tighter policy than markets currently price, creating sustained headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold.
• If the DXY rebounds above 100, it could trigger another wave of selling pressure across all precious metals.
• Silver's extreme 31% weekly drop suggests forced liquidation — further unwinding of leveraged positions could push prices below $65.
• Central bank buying moderation (755 tonnes projected vs. 1,000+ in prior peak years) removes a key structural support pillar.

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Wait for stabilization above $4,700 before initiating positions; consider dollar-cost averaging into gold on any retest of the $4,400–$4,500 zone.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions — the structural bull case (central bank buying, ETF inflows, dollar weakness) remains intact despite the correction. Consider adding on a confirmed hold of $4,700 support.

Gold vs. Silver: Gold is the clear defensive choice near-term; the ratio spike to 63.8 from 48.3 signals extreme silver weakness, but contrarian investors may watch for a ratio reversal below 60 as a silver entry signal.

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Closing Thoughts

This week's historic correction tested conviction, but the underlying bull thesis — persistent central bank accumulation, strong ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar — remains structurally intact. Key catalysts ahead include the February 18–19 FOMC meeting minutes and the February 12 CPI release, which will set the tone for whether this pullback becomes an extended consolidation or a buying opportunity.

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