GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending February 14, 2026

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Executive Summary

Gold held near $5,000/oz this week, closing at $5,042 after touching a weekly high of $5,115 on Wednesday, as softer January CPI data (+2.4% YoY) reinforced rate-cut expectations and a weakening dollar (DXY ~97) kept the bullish thesis intact. Silver was the story of the week — surging to $86.17 before a sharp 10.2% sell-off pulled it back to $77.40, while platinum and palladium retreated on profit-taking despite strong fundamental outlooks.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters | CPI: Consumer Price Index — measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time | DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength | RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) | Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal) | Leverage flush: Rapid sell-off triggered by margin calls and forced liquidations

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Change	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$5,042	+1.9%	$4,886	$5,115	+15.4%
Silver	$77.40	+3.3%	$74.45	$86.17	+3.4%
Platinum	$2,063	+0.5%	$1,982	$2,189	-7.3%
Palladium	$1,688	-0.3%	$1,610	$1,771	+0.5%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 65.2 (↓ from 66.0 last week) — Silver outperformed gold on a weekly basis despite the late-week decline, compressing the ratio.

Key Milestones

• Gold touched $5,115 on Wednesday, its highest intraweek level since the Jan 29 all-time highs
• Silver's weekly range of $74.45–$86.17 represents one of the widest spans in months
• Gold traded above $4,900 every session this week, with intraday prints above $5,000 on five of six trading days

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Key Drivers

a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at its January 28 meeting with two dissenters, and January CPI cooling to +2.4% YoY (from 2.7%) keeps one 2026 rate cut firmly on the table. The DXY hovered near multi-month lows around 97, providing a tailwind for dollar-denominated metals.

b. Macro & Political Factors

Trump's tariff regime — now at a weighted average of 13.5%, the highest since 1946 — continues to stoke inflation fears and safe-haven demand, with new tariffs on eight EU nations over the Greenland dispute. The nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair added further policy uncertainty.

c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

China's PBOC extended its buying streak to 15 consecutive months (1.2 tonnes added in January; reserves at 74.19M oz valued at $369.6B), while global gold ETFs posted $9.4B in February inflows — the strongest since March 2022. The WGC confirmed record 2025 demand exceeding 5,000 tonnes for the first time, with investment reaching a landmark 2,175 tonnes.

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Technical Outlook

Gold is consolidating in a broad $4,886–$5,115 range after finding support near the $4,920 level. Immediate resistance sits at $5,108, with a breakout targeting $5,210 and $5,320. The 50-day moving average near $4,880 provides strong secondary support. Silver found a floor around $77 following the mid-week sell-off from $86.17; a recovery above $82 would signal renewed momentum, while a break below $74.45 (the weekly low) would open the door to $70.

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Regional Highlights

• China: Bullion trading at a $35/oz premium above the global benchmark, up from $32 the prior week, with strong Lunar New Year demand and continued PBOC accumulation.
• India: Gold premiums collapsed to $70/oz from $153 the prior week, with dealers now offering discounts of up to $12/oz as record prices deter retail buyers.
• North America: Gold ETF inflows surged to $7B in January alone, marking eight consecutive months of positive flows as institutional investors maintain strong allocations.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Silver volatility risk: The 10.2% decline from the weekly high demonstrates how leveraged positioning can amplify downside; another cascade below $74.45 could trigger a move toward $70.
• Fed hawkishness: If the March FOMC holds rates and signals further patience, rate-cut expectations could reprice sharply, pressuring all metals.
• Tariff diplomacy: Any de-escalation on the Greenland/EU front or a Canada-US trade deal could remove a key safe-haven bid.
• Dollar reversal: A DXY bounce above 99 would create headwinds for gold; watch the February jobs report (March 6) as a potential catalyst.

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Consider scaling into gold positions on pullbacks toward $4,900–$4,950, where the 50-day moving average and recent support converge; allocate 5–10% of portfolio to precious metals for diversification.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions as the macro backdrop (weakening dollar, elevated tariffs, persistent central bank buying) remains supportive; consider taking partial profits on any move above $5,200.

Gold vs. Silver: Silver's 10.2% decline from the weekly high has created a more attractive entry point at current levels ($77–$78), especially given the sixth consecutive year of supply deficits; the compressed gold/silver ratio at 65.2 suggests silver has room to outperform if the leverage overhang clears.

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Closing Thoughts

Gold's resilience near $5,000 through a volatile week underscores the structural strength of the current bull market, driven by central bank accumulation and macro uncertainty. Key catalysts ahead include the February jobs report (March 6), February CPI release (March 11), and the next FOMC meeting (March 17–18).

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