GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending February 21, 2026

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Executive Summary

Gold closed the week at $5,107/oz, extending its rally with a 0.6% weekly gain as markets digested FOMC minutes showing sharp policy divisions and a landmark Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump's global tariffs. Silver retreated 1.7% to $84.61, underperforming gold as the gold/silver ratio widened to 60.4. Record ETF inflows and escalating US-Iran tensions continued to underpin safe-haven demand across the precious metals complex.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters | DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength | RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) | Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal) | FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Change	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$5,107	+0.6%	$4,853	$5,107	+16.9%
Silver	$84.61	-1.7%	$72.15	$84.64	+13.1%
Platinum	$2,157	-0.1%	$1,985	$2,171	-3.1%
Palladium	$1,765	+0.1%	$1,632	$1,770	+5.1%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 60.4 (up from 59.0 last week) — Gold outperforming as silver pulls back from January highs

Key Milestones

• Gold closed at its weekly high of $5,107, recovering $254 from Monday's low of $4,853
• Silver's intra-week range of $72–$85 reflects continued volatility following January's historic $100 breach and subsequent sell-off
• Palladium steadied near $1,765 amid a US Commerce Department investigation estimating 828% Russian dumping margins

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Key Drivers

Monetary Policy & Dollar

FOMC minutes (Feb 18) revealed sharp divisions among policymakers, with most officials warning inflation progress toward 2% "might be slower and more uneven than generally expected." The DXY eased to 97.8, down 8.3% year-over-year, after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling.

Macro & Political Factors

US-Iran tensions escalated as Iran conducted Strait of Hormuz naval exercises affecting 20% of global oil traffic, while Trump issued a 15-day deadline for a nuclear deal. Separately, Trump signed a new 10% across-the-board tariff executive order hours after the Supreme Court ruling, maintaining trade policy uncertainty.

Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Global gold ETFs attracted $9.4 billion in February (month-to-date), following a record $19 billion in January that pushed global AUM to $669 billion. The PBoC extended its gold buying streak to 15 consecutive months, while 95% of central banks surveyed expect global gold reserves to increase.

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Technical Outlook

Gold faces immediate resistance at $5,108–$5,154, with the January all-time high of $5,595 as the next major target. Support is well-established at $4,938–$4,882, with a floor at $4,822. RSI sits neutral around 55 with a slight upward bias, while MACD remains in positive territory without a clear directional signal — a sustained break above $5,150 could trigger momentum toward $5,200–$5,400.

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Regional Highlights

• India: Gold ETF inflows surged to INR 46 billion ($501M) in early February, though physical jewellery demand remains weak as prices outpace consumer budgets; full-year demand projected at 600–700 tonnes.
• China: Shanghai Gold Exchange recorded 126 tonnes in January withdrawals; Chinese gold ETFs added RMB 44 billion ($6.2B) — the strongest start to a year on record. Insurance funds now authorized for 1% allocation to bullion.
• North America: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) assets stand at $174 billion with 42.2% institutional ownership; North American ETFs expanded holdings by 43.4 tonnes (~$7B) in January alone.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• A stronger-than-expected March jobs report or CPI reading could push the DXY above 98 and pressure gold below $5,000
• Resolution of US-Iran tensions could reduce the safe-haven premium by $100–$200/oz
• Profit-taking risk remains elevated given gold's 25.6% rally over 90 days; a pullback to $4,800–$4,900 support is technically possible
• Trump's new 10% tariff executive order faces likely legal challenges; tariff policy whiplash remains a two-way risk for precious metals

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Consider scaling in with a 3–5% portfolio allocation on pullbacks toward the $4,900–$5,000 support zone rather than chasing the current rally at weekly highs.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions — the fundamental backdrop (central bank buying, record ETF inflows, geopolitical risk) remains supportive. Consider taking partial profits on 10–15% of positions above $5,150.

Gold vs. Silver: Silver's -1.7% weekly loss vs. gold's +0.6% gain widened the ratio to 60.4, but silver's 13.1% YTD gain and structural industrial demand make it attractive for risk-tolerant investors on dips toward $75–$78.

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Closing Thoughts

Gold's consolidation in the $4,900–$5,100 range, supported by record ETF inflows and persistent central bank demand, positions it well for a potential push toward $5,200 if macro conditions cooperate. Key catalysts ahead include the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and nonfarm payrolls data in early March, and Trump's 15-day Iran negotiation deadline.

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