GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending February 27, 2026

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Executive Summary

All four precious metals rallied this week — silver surged 10.9%, platinum gained 9.4%, and gold climbed 3.4% to $5,279/oz — driven by tariff upheaval after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs and the administration pivoted to Section 122 import surcharges. Markets now brace for a potentially explosive open on Sunday night after the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran on Saturday morning, escalating the conflict into what appears to be a regional war. Safe-haven demand is expected to spike sharply when trading resumes.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$5,279	+3.4%	$5,098	$5,280	+20.9%
Silver	$93.79	+10.9%	$85.29	$94.02	+25.3%
Platinum	$2,359	+9.4%	$2,102	$2,407	+6.0%
Palladium	$1,785	+1.1%	$1,697	$1,867	+6.2%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 56.3 (↓ from 60.4 last week) — Silver outperforming gold for the third consecutive week, with the ratio compressing 4.1 points on strong industrial and speculative demand.

Key Milestones

• Silver surged nearly 11% on the week, breaking past $93/oz to test the $94 level
• Gold tested fresh highs near $5,280, within striking distance of the $5,300 level
• Platinum broke above $2,400 intraweek before settling at $2,359, its strongest level since 2023

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Key Drivers

a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at its January 28 meeting, with markets pricing low odds of a cut at the March 17–18 FOMC. The DXY rebounded to 97.65 (+0.9% in February), but bearish positioning remains near a 14-year extreme, limiting upside and supporting metals.

b. Macro & Political Factors

The Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling triggered a pivot to Section 122 tariffs — a 10% global import surcharge scaling to 15% — reigniting inflation fears and safe-haven flows. On Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, marking a dramatic escalation that threatens to engulf the region. This follows weeks of rising tensions including Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz for military drills and stalled nuclear talks in Geneva.

c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

The PBOC extended its gold-buying streak to 15 consecutive months, with holdings reaching 2,308 tonnes. Global gold ETFs posted $9.4 billion in February inflows — the third consecutive month of gains and the strongest since March 2022.

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Technical Outlook

Gold closed Friday near session highs at $5,279, with immediate resistance at $5,321 and $5,370, and a stretch target at $5,427. Key support sits at $5,154 and the psychologically critical $5,000 level. The daily trend structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows intact. However, the Iran escalation over the weekend is likely to gap gold significantly higher at Sunday's open — previous resistance levels may be tested or breached before the week even begins. Silver could see outsized moves given its higher beta to geopolitical shocks.

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Regional Highlights

• India: The 2026 budget cut gold import duty to 5% (from 6%), expected to drive a 25–30% surge in purchases during Diwali and Dhanteras; investment demand rose 17% to 280 tonnes in 2025.
• China: SGE withdrawals totaled 126 tonnes in January; Chinese gold ETFs added RMB 44 billion ($6.2 billion, 38 tonnes) — the strongest January on record.
• North America: North American gold ETF inflows continued for an eighth consecutive month; the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) traded at $483.75 amid elevated tariff-driven demand.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Iran escalation: The US/Israel strikes on Iran risk a full regional war; if the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping, expect oil and gold to spike further — but a ceasefire or de-escalation could trigger a sharp reversal of the safe-haven premium
• Gap risk at Sunday open: Metals may gap significantly higher, creating elevated volatility and potential for sharp intraday reversals once the initial shock is priced in
• Silver overextension: An 11% weekly gain plus a potential war-driven gap leaves silver vulnerable to violent pullbacks if sentiment shifts
• Fed hawkish pivot: Core PCE at 3.0% gives the Fed reason to delay cuts; any hawkish surprise at the March 17–18 FOMC could trigger profit-taking

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Avoid chasing the Sunday gap — geopolitical spikes often retrace partially within 48–72 hours. If you are looking to enter, wait for a pullback toward $5,100–$5,200 on gold or $88–$90 on silver rather than buying into the initial panic bid.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions — the trend remains firmly bullish above $5,000 — but consider taking 10–15% partial profits on silver after its explosive weekly move if your allocation has become outsized.

Gold vs. Silver: Silver's ratio compression from 60.4 to 56.3 confirms it has been the stronger trade recently; however, after a near-11% weekly move, gold may offer a better risk/reward entry for new capital.

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Closing Thoughts

The Iran conflict has abruptly become the dominant market catalyst, overshadowing the tariff and monetary policy narratives that drove this week's rally. Watch for developments over the weekend and the Sunday night open closely. Scheduled catalysts remain on deck: the February jobs report on March 6, February CPI on March 11, and the March 17–18 FOMC meeting — but geopolitical headlines will likely dominate price action in the near term.

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Prices as of February 27, 2026, 22:00 UTC.

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