GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending March 7, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals gave back last week's geopolitical gains as the US-Israel military operation against Iran entered its eighth day. Gold retreated 2.0% to $5,172 after touching $5,416 early in the week, while silver led decliners with a 9.9% drop. The dollar's safe-haven rally (DXY near 98) and profit-taking pressured all four metals, though gold's YTD gain of +18.4% underscores the broader structural bull case.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$5,172	-2.0%	$5,003	$5,416	+18.4%
Silver	$84.46	-9.9%	$78.82	$96.17	+12.9%
Platinum	$2,139	-9.3%	$2,014	$2,420	-3.9%
Palladium	$1,623	-9.1%	$1,598	$1,840	-3.4%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 61.2 (↑ from 56.3 last week) — Gold strongly favored as silver gave back outsized gains; ratio snapped back toward long-term average

Key Milestones

• Gold hit an intraweek high of $5,416 on March 2 before reversing sharply
• Silver swung 18% from its $96.17 high to the $78.82 low — extreme volatility
• Platinum and palladium both retreated over 9%, the sharpest weekly pullback since late 2025

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Key Drivers

a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The DXY rallied to a five-week high near 98 as investors rotated into the dollar amid Middle East uncertainty, pressuring metals. Fed funds remain at 3.50–3.75%, with 84% of markets pricing no change at the March meeting.

b. Macro & Political Factors

The US-Israel military operation against Iran entered day eight, with the Strait of Hormuz seeing tanker traffic drop ~70%. A dismal February payrolls report (-92,000 jobs) added recession fears, creating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and dollar strength.

c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Gold ETFs drew $8.6B (92t) in March inflows, bringing Q1 to $21B (226t) — the second-strongest quarter on record. China extended its gold-buying streak past 15 months, lifting holdings above 2,300 tonnes.

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Technical Outlook

Gold is consolidating in the $5,053–$5,208 range after the volatile reversal from $5,416. Immediate support sits at $5,053 with deeper support at $4,996; resistance at $5,266 and $5,321. The sharp pullback from the intraweek high suggests a period of consolidation before the next directional move, with next week's CPI release likely to be the catalyst.

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Regional Highlights

• China: PBOC continues adding gold for 15+ consecutive months; holdings now exceed 2,300 tonnes as de-dollarization strategy accelerates amid geopolitical tensions.
• India: Wedding season demand remains resilient despite elevated prices, with over 40% of jewellery sales driven by old gold exchange. Gold ETF inflows hit record highs.
• North America/Europe: Drove 83% of Q1 gold ETF inflows ($21B); Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold target to $5,400 from $4,900.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Dollar strength: DXY above 98 could cap upside if the conflict-driven bid persists — watch for a break above 99
• Profit-taking cascade: Silver's 18% intraweek swing signals fragile positioning; another sharp move lower could trigger stop-losses across the complex
• Ceasefire scenario: Any de-escalation in Iran could unwind the geopolitical premium rapidly — gold could retest $4,900–$5,000
• CPI surprise: February CPI data next week — a hot print could push rate-cut expectations further out, strengthening the dollar and pressuring metals

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: The pullback from $5,416 to $5,172 offers a more attractive entry than last week, but waiting for a test of the $5,000–$5,050 support zone may provide better risk-reward.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions — the structural case (central bank buying, ETF inflows, geopolitical uncertainty) remains intact. Consider trimming tactical positions if gold fails to reclaim $5,200.

Gold vs. Silver: Gold looks more defensive at current levels as the gold/silver ratio jumped to 61.2 from 56.3, signaling silver's higher beta is working against it. Silver may offer better upside if tensions escalate further, but gold provides more stability in the current environment.

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Closing Thoughts

This week's reversal was a reminder that geopolitical-driven rallies can give back gains quickly when the dollar also catches a safe-haven bid. With CPI data on March 11, Q4 GDP revision on March 13, and the Fed's next meeting on March 18–19, the coming two weeks are loaded with catalysts that will set the tone for Q2.

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