GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending March 14, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals sold off sharply this week as a strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields overshadowed escalating Middle East tensions. Gold fell 3.0% from its weekly high of $5,234 to close near $5,019, while silver declined 4.6% week-over-week and platinum led losses at -5.3%. Despite the pullback, gold remains up 14.9% YTD, and the gold/silver ratio widened to 62.3, signaling gold's relative strength in a risk-off environment.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$5,019	-2.95%	$5,010	$5,234	+14.9%
Silver	$80.57	-4.60%	$79.76	$89.80	+7.7%
Platinum	$2,026	-5.27%	$2,020	$2,245	-9.0%
Palladium	$1,551	-4.41%	$1,551	$1,707	-7.7%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 62.3 (↑ from 61.2 last week) — Gold outperforming as silver suffers a steeper correction; ratio widening favors silver as a catch-up trade longer term.

Key Milestones

• Gold touched $5,234 on Monday before retreating — the first move above $5,200 in over two weeks
• Silver hit $89.80 earlier in the week before a sharp 10.3% reversal to close at $80.57
• Platinum breached $2,245 before giving back all gains, ending near $2,026 — now down 9.0% on the year

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Key Drivers

1. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The DXY pushed above 100 for the first time since November 2025, driven by safe-haven dollar demand amid Middle East tensions. The Fed meets next week (March 17–18) with no rate change expected; markets price only one cut for 2026.

2. Macro & Political Factors

Escalating US–Israel strikes on Iran dominated headlines but failed to sustain gold's safe-haven bid as dollar strength and rising yields competed for risk-off flows. February PPI data and jobless claims added to volatility mid-week.

3. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Gold ETFs attracted $8.6bn (92 tonnes) in March, bringing Q1 inflows to $21bn (226 tonnes) — the second-strongest quarter on record. Central banks are projected to purchase 755 tonnes in 2026, with the PBoC extending its buying streak to 16 consecutive months.

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Technical Outlook

Gold closed at $5,019, testing the $4,996–$5,053 support zone with RSI near 43 (neutral). A Bullish Engulfing pattern formed near $5,108, though the MACD remains in negative territory, approaching the zero line. Key resistance sits at $5,208–$5,266; a sustained break above $5,150 would signal resumption of the uptrend toward the $5,320 target. Downside risk extends to $4,937 if the $5,000 psychological level fails.

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Regional Highlights

• India: Demand destruction deepens — dealers offer record discounts of $83/oz over domestic prices, the highest since July 2016, as retail buyers balk at elevated prices.
• China: Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums hold at $20–$30/oz over spot, with the PBoC's 16-month buying streak lifting official reserves to approximately 2,308 tonnes.
• North America/Europe: Gold ETF inflows of $21bn in Q1 were driven primarily by North American and European funds, accounting for 83% of net flows.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Dollar strength persists: If DXY holds above 100 post-FOMC, gold could test $4,937 support
• Iran ceasefire scenario: A de-escalation could trigger rapid unwinding of safe-haven positions
• Fed hawkish surprise: Any signal of delayed rate cuts at the March 17–18 meeting would pressure metals further
• Silver volatility: The 10% intra-week reversal signals fragile momentum; a break below $79 could accelerate selling

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Consider scaling into gold near the $5,000 psychological support level with a 5–10% portfolio allocation; wait for confirmation of a hold above $4,996 before committing.

For Current Holders: Hold positions — the pullback is within the context of a +14.9% YTD rally. Consider adding on a test of $4,937 or taking partial profits if gold reclaims $5,200.

Gold vs. Silver: Silver's steeper correction (-4.6% vs. -3.0%) and wider ratio at 62.3 make it the more attractive entry for risk-tolerant investors seeking catch-up potential; however, near-term volatility warrants smaller position sizes.

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Closing Thoughts

This week's correction is a healthy consolidation within a strong structural bull market supported by central bank buying and record ETF inflows. The Fed's March 17–18 meeting and any developments in the Iran conflict will be the primary catalysts next week, with February retail sales data (March 17) also on the calendar.

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