GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending March 20, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals suffered their sharpest weekly rout since 1983 as the Iran war's oil shock collided with a hawkish Federal Reserve. Gold plunged 10.5% to $4,491, silver cratered 15.8% to $67.88, and the entire complex sold off despite record ETF inflows. The gold/silver ratio surged to 66.2 from 62.3, reflecting silver's outsized industrial-demand vulnerability in the current stagflationary environment.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal) • Stagflation: Rising inflation combined with slowing growth

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Change	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,491	-10.5%	$4,490	$5,042	+2.8%
Silver	$67.88	-15.8%	$66.68	$82.49	-9.3%
Platinum	$1,927	-4.9%	$1,883	$2,168	-13.4%
Palladium	$1,409	-9.2%	$1,399	$1,632	-16.2%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 66.2 (↑ from 62.3 last week) — Gold strongly outperforming as silver's industrial demand exposure amplifies the sell-off.

Key Milestones

• Gold posted its worst weekly decline since 1983, falling over $527 from Monday's open near $5,019
• Silver shed nearly 16% in a single week, with the SLV ETF losing over $3.6bn in assets year-to-date as leveraged positions unwound
• Platinum proved the most resilient of the group, declining just 4.9% as auto-catalyst demand provided support

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Key Drivers

Monetary Policy & Dollar

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% on March 18 with a hawkish tone, projecting only one cut for 2026 and raising year-end inflation forecasts to 2.7%. The DXY surged to 99.3, up from 96 in mid-February, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for international buyers.

Macro & Political Factors

The Iran war (now in its third week) has pushed Brent crude above $105/barrel after near-total disruption of Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic. The resulting oil shock is fueling inflation expectations, creating a paradox where safe-haven demand is overwhelmed by the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates.

Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Despite the sell-off, gold ETFs attracted $8.6bn (92t) in March alone, bringing Q1 inflows to $21bn (226t) — the second-strongest quarter on record. Global gold ETF holdings hit an all-time high of 4,171 tonnes. Central banks maintained buying at ~60t/month, with Poland (95t YTD) and China (16 consecutive months of purchases) leading accumulation.

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Technical Outlook

Gold broke below the critical $4,960 level mid-week, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and forced liquidations from leveraged funds. Immediate support sits at $4,500–$4,600, with the daily low of $4,490 on March 20 marking the floor so far. Resistance on any relief rally targets $4,700 initially, then the $4,960 zone; reclaiming $5,000 would be essential to restore the bullish trend.

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Regional Highlights

• India: Consumer demand remained subdued despite the sharp price correction, with jewellers focused on fiscal year-end book closings rather than restocking.
• China: ETF inflows accelerated in March on safe-haven demand, and the PBoC continued its 16-month gold buying streak, though Shanghai premiums dropped to $10–$22/oz from $20–$30 the prior week.
• North America/Europe: Drove 83% of global gold ETF inflows in Q1, with institutional investors buying the dip even as retail sentiment turned cautious.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Escalation in Iran: Further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could push oil above $150, intensifying stagflation fears and prolonging the precious metals sell-off
• Forced liquidation cascade: Leveraged long positions continue to unwind; a break below $4,400 gold could trigger another wave of margin calls
• Dollar breakout above 100: If the DXY reclaims the 100–101 range, expect additional pressure on all precious metals
• Silver industrial demand: Global economic slowdown from the oil shock threatens silver's industrial use case, which accounts for ~50% of total demand

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: The $4,500–$4,600 zone offers a more attractive entry than any point in the last 60 days — consider scaling in with 25–30% of intended allocation and adding on further dips toward $4,400.

For Current Holders: Hold positions and avoid panic selling into the forced liquidation wave. JP Morgan ($6,300) and Deutsche Bank ($6,000) maintain year-end targets well above current levels.

Gold vs. Silver: Gold is the clear preference in the current environment — the rising gold/silver ratio at 66.2 reflects silver's vulnerability to both industrial slowdown and leveraged selling, making gold the safer defensive play.

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Closing Thoughts

This week's sell-off is a liquidity-driven correction within a structural bull market, not a fundamental reversal. The next FOMC meeting on April 28–29 will be the key catalyst, with markets watching whether the Iran-driven oil shock forces the Fed to reconsider its hawkish stance. In the meantime, watch the $4,500 support level — it's the line in the sand.

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