GoldTrack Weekly Newsletter

Week Ending April 4, 2026

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Executive Summary

Precious metals surged across the board this week, led by palladium's 8.8% rally and gold's push above $4,796 before settling at $4,676. A strong March NFP report initially pressured metals lower, but Hormuz Strait tensions and elevated oil prices reignited safe-haven demand. The gold/silver ratio ticked down to 64.1, signaling modest silver outperformance as industrial metals led the recovery.

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Key Terms This Week

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,676	+4.1%	$4,429	$4,796	+7.1%
Silver	$73.00	+4.6%	$67.76	$76.11	-2.4%
Platinum	$1,978	+6.4%	$1,823	$2,003	-11.1%
Palladium	$1,502	+8.8%	$1,355	$1,510	-10.6%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 64.1 (↓ from 64.4 last week) — Silver slightly outperforming as industrial demand strengthens

Key Milestones

• Gold touched $4,796 on April 1–2, its highest level since early March, before pulling back on stronger-than-expected NFP data
• Platinum briefly topped $2,003, testing the psychologically significant $2,000 level for the first time since mid-Q1
• Palladium posted its strongest weekly gain in 2026 at +8.8%, driven by supply concerns and Hormuz-related disruption fears

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Key Drivers

a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% with an 11-1 vote, raising its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%. DXY edged above 100 after a strong March NFP print but remained range-bound, limiting sustained pressure on metals.

b. Macro & Political Factors

Hormuz Strait closure fears and elevated oil prices drove safe-haven inflows throughout the week. The combination of geopolitical risk premium and sticky inflation at 2.7% PCE kept gold well-bid despite dollar strength.

c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Gold ETFs attracted $21 billion (226 tonnes) in Q1 2026 — the second-strongest quarter on record. Poland continues building reserves toward its 700-tonne target, while Southeast Asian nations including Malaysia and Indonesia have re-entered the market.

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Technical Outlook

Gold closed at $4,676, holding above the key $4,631 Fibonacci support (0.382 level) after Friday's NFP-driven pullback from $4,796. The 200-SMA at $4,704 remains immediate resistance — a decisive close above opens targets at $4,805 and then the psychological $5,000 level. Downside risk targets $4,577 if $4,631 support breaks, with major support at the $4,428–$4,500 zone (this week's low and March consolidation area).

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Regional Highlights

• India: Bar and coin demand remains robust, with local ETF inflows accelerating in Q1 despite elevated prices; jewelry demand expected to soften in 2026.
• China: Seasonal rebound in jewelry purchases in early Q1, though major banks have issued warnings on precious metals volatility, tempering speculative demand.
• North America/Europe: Gold ETF inflows dominated by North American and European funds, which accounted for 83% of Q1's record $21 billion in net inflows.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• Dollar breakout above 102: A sustained DXY move above 102 on strong CPI data could trigger a gold correction toward $4,500
• Hormuz de-escalation: A diplomatic resolution would remove the geopolitical premium supporting this week's rally, risking a pullback to the $4,500–$4,600 range
• Fed hawkish pivot: FOMC minutes (April 8) could reveal more hawkish sentiment than the statement suggested, pressuring rate-cut expectations
• China demand slowdown: If Chinese bank warnings translate into reduced retail buying, a key demand pillar weakens heading into Q2

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Consider building positions on pullbacks toward $4,500–$4,600 rather than chasing the current bounce; a 3–5% allocation to gold remains appropriate given macro uncertainty.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions — gold remains in a structural uptrend (+4.9% over 90 days) despite the 8.8% pullback from 30-day highs near $5,128. Consider taking partial profits on spikes above $4,800.

Gold vs. Silver: Silver looks attractive at current levels with the ratio at 64.1 and a negative YTD (-2.4% vs. gold's +7.1%); a ratio compression toward 60 would imply meaningful silver outperformance from here.

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Closing Thoughts

Gold remains supported by a powerful combination of central bank accumulation, ETF inflows, and geopolitical risk, even as the Fed holds rates steady. The FOMC minutes release on April 8 and the upcoming US CPI report are the key catalysts to watch — a softer inflation print could be the trigger for gold's next push toward $5,000.

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