GoldTrack Newsletter

Market Update — September 25, 2026

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Executive Summary

Gold slipped 1.1% to $4,302 this week as the Fed's first rate hike in three years and an eight-week high in the dollar weighed on non-yielding assets. Silver (-3.4%) and palladium (-3.7%) fell harder, pushing the gold/silver ratio up to 66.4. Record ETF holdings and steady central bank buying keep the longer-term floor intact.

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Key Terms

Support/Resistance: Price levels where buying/selling pressure clusters • DXY: Dollar Index measuring USD strength • RSI: Momentum indicator (high = overbought) • Central bank buying: Governments adding gold to reserves (bullish signal)

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📈 Price Action & Market Data

Precious Metals Performance

Metal	Current	Weekly Δ	Week Low	Week High	YTD
Gold	$4,302	-1.1%	$4,248	$4,396	-1.5%
Silver	$64.78	-3.4%	$63.17	$67.48	-13.4%
Platinum	$1,769	-1.3%	$1,732	$1,842	-20.5%
Palladium	$1,266	-3.7%	$1,249	$1,332	-24.6%

Gold/Silver Ratio: 66.4 (↑ from 64.9 a week ago) — Gold outperformed as silver's higher volatility amplified the selloff.

Key Milestones

• Gold touched a weekly low of $4,248 on September 24, its lowest level since September 16.
• Gold is now slightly negative year-to-date (-1.5%), though still above its 90-day-ago level of $4,072.
• Palladium extended its YTD decline to 24.6%, the weakest of the four metals.

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Key Drivers

a. Monetary Policy & Dollar

The FOMC raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% at its September 15–16 meeting in a unanimous 12–0 vote, with the median projection pointing to 4.1% by year-end. The DXY climbed above 101 to an eight-week high after US business activity expanded at its fastest pace in over five years.

b. Macro & Political Factors

Strong PMI data and hawkish Fed commentary kept Treasury yields elevated, overshadowing safe-haven demand. PCE inflation is expected to stay well above target through 2026, keeping further tightening on the table.

c. Central Bank & Institutional Demand

Global gold ETFs added $18 billion (121 tonnes) in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, lifting holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes. China's central bank bought 20.2 tonnes in August, its largest purchase since October 2023 and its 22nd straight month of additions.

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Technical Outlook

Gold is testing support at $4,240–$4,255, a zone that held on September 14, 16 and 24. Resistance sits at $4,370–$4,400, where rallies stalled on September 11 and 18. A daily close below $4,240 opens a path toward the $4,070 area, while a break above $4,400 would signal the correction is over.

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Regional Highlights

• India: Local discounts widened to $78/oz as of September 11 (from $34/oz in July) as August imports fell 45% m/m to $2.3 billion.
• China: The PBoC has added roughly 80 tonnes so far in 2026, lifting official reserves to about 2,387 tonnes.
• North America/Europe: North American ETFs took in $7.7 billion in August while European funds posted a record $7.9 billion inflow.

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⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints

• A hot August PCE reading on September 30 could strengthen the case for another hike and push the DXY higher.
• A strong September jobs report on October 2 would add pressure on non-yielding metals.
• A daily close below $4,240 in gold risks a deeper slide toward $4,070.
• Silver below $63 would break this week's low and could accelerate selling.

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Portfolio Considerations

For New Investors: Build a 5–10% allocation gradually, adding near the $4,250 support rather than chasing rebounds.

For Current Holders: Hold core positions while gold stays above $4,240; consider trimming only on a confirmed close below that level.

Gold vs. Silver: With the ratio at 66.4 and rising, gold offers better stability near term, while silver suits patient buyers with higher risk tolerance.

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Closing Thoughts

Gold is consolidating under rate-hike pressure, but record ETF holdings and central bank demand provide a solid base. Watch August PCE on September 30, the jobs report on October 2, and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.

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